Nova Capital — FX Macro Research Weekly | 6 Jul 2026 [UPDATE NEW YORK]

FX Macro Research Weekly

Analisis Postur Kebijakan Moneter Global · Kalender Ekonomi Dual Layer · Skenario Per Mata Uang · Currency Divergence Matrix

BASELINE WEEKLY OUTLOOK: NFP Jun 57K KEJUTAN TERBESAR 2026. ISM Services 6 Jul = konfirmasi kritis. RBNZ Decision 8 Jul = divergence play utama. | UPDATE 6 JUL — NEW YORK SESSION: ★ ISM Services PMI 54.0 IN-LINE vs 54.0 konsensus (prev 54.5) — services cooling modestly. Employment 51.2 rebound (bright spot), tapi Business Activity & New Orders turun. EUR PPI +0.2% IN-LINE, Retail Sales +0.2% MILD MISS. Fed Waller moderat. Sinyal MIXED: NFP miss + ISM cooling = ekonomi AS melambat gradual, bukan crash. FOMC Minutes 8 Jul jadi penentu arah. Blackout ISM LIFTED.

⏺ UPDATE INTRADAY Senin, 6 Juli 2026 — New York Session

DATA DIPROSES

4 event dirilis hari ini (6 Jul). ISM Services PMI adalah RESOLUSI KRITIS yang ditunggu sejak NFP miss.

🇺🇸 USD — ★ ISM Services PMI Jun

54.0 vs 54.0 konsensus — ✅ IN-LINE

Previous: 54.5 | Forecast: 54.0 | Actual: 54.0
Business Activity: 55.4 (↓ dari 57.7)
New Orders: 55.1 (↓ dari 57.3)
★ Employment: 51.2 (↑ dari 47.9) — REBOUND KE EKSPANSI!
Prices Paid: 67.7 (↓ dari 71.3) — four-month low
Ekspansi bulan ke-24 berturut-turut.

🇪🇺 EUR — PPI Mei MoM

+0.2% vs +0.2% konsensus — ✅ IN-LINE

Previous: +0.7% (direvisi dari +0.6%)
Energy: -1.0% (drag bulan ke-2)
Core PPI ex-energy: +0.7% (masih elevated)
KONFIRMASI disinflasi — ECB hold Jul solid

🇪🇺 EUR — Retail Sales Mei MoM

+0.2% vs +0.3% konsensus — 🔻 MILD MISS

Previous: -0.3% (direvisi dari -0.4%)
Food, drinks & tobacco: +0.6%
Non-food: +0.1% | Auto fuel: -0.5%
Recovery dari kontraksi April, tapi masih di bawah ekspektasi. Konsumsi domestik EUR lemah.

🇺🇸 USD — Fed Waller Speech

First Fed speech post-NFP — Tone MODERAT

Panel diskusi — tidak ada sinyal eksplisit
"Following Warsh's lead with limited forward guidance"
NFP 57K memoderasi tone hawkish. Tidak endorse hike Jul.
Market pricing: Hold 76-78% / Hike 22-24%

REPRICING (Rule 5A)

Tesis Sentral: ISM Services 54.0 IN-LINE + NFP 57K MISS = ekonomi AS cooling, bukan crash. Stagflation masih base case tapi momentum melemah.

🇺🇸 USD: ISM 54.0 IN-LINE vs 54.0 konsensus (previous 54.5) = services growth decelerating. Employment sub-index rebound ke 51.2 (dari 47.9) = bright spot, tapi Business Activity & New Orders turun. Sinyal MIXED — bukan konfirmasi kuat stagflation, bukan juga sinyal deflation. NFP 57K + ISM cooling = ekonomi melambat modestly. Prob hike Fed ~24%. DXY ~101.00. CAUTION: arah USD belum jelas. FOMC Minutes 8 Jul dibutuhkan untuk konfirmasi.

🇪🇺 EUR: PPI IN-LINE + Retail Sales MILD MISS = mixed signal. Disinflasi berjalan (PPI turun ke +0.2%) tapi konsumsi domestik masih lesu. ECB hold Jul 23 tetap base case. EUR/GBP LONG masih valid — divergensi ECB hawkish-hold vs BoE dovish-hold.

🥇 XAUUSD: ISM IN-LINE = netral untuk gold. Tidak ada katalis kuat either direction hari ini. Gold ~$4,150-$4,170. Entry long $4,080-$4,120 masih valid — tunggu pullback atau konfirmasi FOMC dovish.

₿ BTC: ISM IN-LINE = netral. COT extreme long (100th percentile) tetap contrarian warning. BTC ~$61,500-$62,000. Sideways menanti FOMC Minutes 8 Jul.

⚡ SPLIT SIGNAL — ISM Services IN-LINE vs NFP MISS: Dua Arah Berlawanan

Minggu lalu (2 Jul): NFP 57K = sinyal DEFLATION — labor market cooling signifikan.
Hari ini (6 Jul): ISM Services 54.0 IN-LINE + Employment 51.2 rebound = sinyal MIXED — services masih ekspansif (>50), hiring naik, tapi Business Activity & New Orders turun dari Mei.

Resolusi: Dua data point minggu ini tidak memberikan gambaran yang jelas. NFP 57K = sinyal pelemahan labor market. ISM IN-LINE = services growth decelerating modestly, bukan crash. Ekonomi AS cooling secara gradual, bukan jatuh ke deflation. Prinsip 7 tetap berlaku (1 NFP miss = KOREKSI), tapi ISM tidak memberikan konfirmasi balik yang kuat. FOMC Minutes 8 Jul sekarang menjadi event paling penting untuk menentukan arah.

Forward: FOMC Minutes 8 Jul = RESOLUSI berikutnya. Jika Minutes dovish = NFP narrative menguat. Jika hawkish = ISM narrative menguat. Japan PPI 10 Jul + Canada Jobs 10 Jul = konfirmasi lanjutan.

RISIKO KE REPRICING (Rule 5B)

① FOMC Minutes (8 Jul): Jika Minutes reveal split serius di komite — dovish undertone bisa membalik ISM IN-LINE. Jika hawkish balanced — konfirmasi stagflation.
② RBNZ Decision (8 Jul): Divergence play utama minggu ini. Jika RBNZ HOLD (20% prob) = shock dovish global, bisa overshadow USD narrative.
③ Japan PPI (10 Jul): Konfirmasi ke-6 Reflation JPY — carry unwind risk tetap tinggi.
④ Geopolitical — NATO Summit (7 Jul): Middle East escalation risk — safe-haven bid untuk Gold dan CHF.

PERUBAHAN SKENARIO

🇺🇸 USD: Skenario Bull (Stagflation intact) tetap 40% — ISM IN-LINE tidak cukup kuat untuk naik. Skenario Bear (Deflation) turun 35%→25%. Skenario Neutral (Mixed — cooling ekonomi) naik 25%→35%. ISM IN-LINE + NFP MISS = terlalu dini untuk mengambil kesimpulan kuat.
🇪🇺 EUR: Tidak ada perubahan signifikan. Skenario Bull (Disinflasi + ECB hold) tetap 55%.
🥇 XAUUSD: Skenario Bull (NFP weak + Geopolitical) tetap 50%. Skenario Bear (Risk-on + FOMC hawkish) tetap 25%. ISM IN-LINE = netral — tidak mengubah kalkulasi gold signifikan.
₿ BTC: Skenario Bull (Relief rally lanjut) tetap 30%. Skenario Bear (COT crowded unwind) tetap 45%. ISM IN-LINE tidak mengubah risk sentiment signifikan.

STATUS PUZZLE

🇺🇸 USD: NFP 57K MISS BESAR (T1✓) + ISM Services IN-LINE 54.0 (T1✓) + ISM Mfg BEAT (T2✓). Keping pending: FOMC Minutes 8 Jul (T1 KRITIS). Price-In: MED. Status: PARTIAL — butuh FOMC Minutes untuk melengkapi. Rekomendasi: CAUTION — MIXED signal, tunggu FOMC 8 Jul
🇪🇺 EUR: ECB hike Jun (T1✓) + Flash CPI turun (T1✓) + PPI IN-LINE (T2✓) + Retail Sales MILD MISS (T2⚠️). Keping pending: ECB Minutes 9 Jul. Status: PARTIAL — tidak berubah.
🇯🇵 JPY: Tidak ada data baru. Tokyo CPI BEAT (T1✓) + BoJ hiking (T1✓) + COT extreme short (T1✓). Status: LENGKAP — SHORT GBP/JPY ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🇳🇿 NZD: RBNZ KONSISTEN 3x + COT extreme short. Keping pending: ★ RBNZ Decision 8 Jul. Status: BINARY — tidak berubah.
🥇 XAUUSD: NFP miss (bullish✓) + ISM IN-LINE (bearish counter⚠️) = mixed signal. Keping pending: FOMC Minutes + Geopolitical. Status: PARTIAL — mixed.
₿ BTC: NFP relief +2.4% (✓) + COT extreme long (⚠️). ISM IN-LINE = risk-on (✓). Status: BELUM CUKUP — COT warning.

IMPLIKASI MACRO REGIME

🇺🇸 USD: STAGFLATION — TETAP. ISM Services 54.0 > 50 + Employment 51.2 rebound = growth masih ekspansif. Prices Paid 67.7 (turun tapi masih elevated) = inflasi sticky. Regime TIDAK berubah ke Deflation.
🇪🇺 EUR: DISINFLASI — TETAP. PPI melandai +0.2%, Flash CPI 1.9%. Konsumsi domestik masih lemah (Retail Sales +0.2% miss).
🇯🇵 JPY: REFLATION — TETAP. Tidak ada data baru. BoJ hiking cycle intact.
🌏 Risk Regime: TRANSISI — Stagflation dikonfirmasi, NFP = koreksi.

BLACKOUT STATUS

✅ ISM Services 6 Jul: LIFTED — data sudah rilis. Entry USD pairs sekarang BISA.
⛔ FOMC Minutes 8 Jul: TETAP AKTIF — 48 jam ke depan. Kurangi size sebelum rilis.
⛔ RBNZ Decision 8 Jul: TETAP AKTIF — NZD pairs blackout penuh.
⛔ ECB Minutes 9 Jul: TETAP AKTIF — EUR pairs siaga.
⛔ Japan PPI 10 Jul: TETAP AKTIF — JPY pairs siaga.
⚠️ China CPI + PPI 9 Jul: MONITORING — AUD, CNH pairs.

LANGKAH 01

Kondisi Pasar Baseline

1A Tabel Postur Kebijakan Moneter Global

Bank Sentral	Mata Uang	Rate Saat Ini	Bias	Next Meeting	Prob Hike / Hold / Cut	Track Record vs Stance
Fed (Warsh)	USD	5.50%	Hawkish-Hold	29 Jul 2026	Hold: ~54% / Hike: ~45% / Cut: 1%	KONSISTEN (4x) ✅ — ISM Services 54.0 IN-LINE vs 54.0 konsensus. Employment sub-index rebound ke 51.2 (ekspansi). NFP 57K = KOREKSI (Prinsip 7), BUKAN pivot. Stagflation masih base case — tapi momentum growth softening. Prob hike stabil ~24%.
ECB (Lagarde)	EUR	2.25% (Dep. Rate)	Hawkish-Hold	23 Jul 2026	Hold: 90% / Hike: 8% / Cut: 2%	KONSISTEN (2x) — US-Iran MOU energy drop removes urgency. Flash CPI EA Jun 1.9% YoY (turun signifikan). ECB bias tetap hold.
BoE (Bailey)	GBP	5.25%	HOLD	6 Agt 2026	Hold: 82% / Hike: 12% / Cut: 6%	KONSISTEN (2x) — BoE Financial Stability Report 7 Jul. Bailey speech pasca-NFP: fokus pada stabilitas. GBP tertekan oleh deflasi UK.
BoJ (Ueda)	JPY	0.50%	HIKE BIAS	29 Jul 2026	Hike: ~92% / Hold: 8%	KONSISTEN (4x) — Tokyo Core CPI 2.7% YoY BEAT. July hike near fully priced (92%). BoJ hiking cycle intact. Carry trade unwind risk tinggi.
RBA (Kent)	AUD	4.35%	HOLD	4 Agt 2026	Hold: 85% / Hike: 10% / Cut: 5%	MELESET (1x) — Last decision dovish surprise. RBA hold bias, tidak ada urgensi hike dengan China deflasi dan NFP US lemah.
RBNZ (Breman)	NZD	2.25%	HIKE — 80% prob	8 Jul 2026 ★	Hike: 80% / Hold: 20%	KONSISTEN (3x) — RBNZ meeting MINGGU INI. Expected hike 25bps ke 2.50%. Divergence play utama vs global dovish tilt.
BoC (Macklem)	CAD	4.50%	HOLD	15 Jul 2026	Hold: 88% / Hike: 8% / Cut: 4%	KONSISTEN (1x) — Canada Jobs Report 10 Jul jadi trigger. BoC hold extended. CAD side-line minggu ini.
SNB	CHF	1.25%	HOLD	Sep 2026	Hold: 85% / Hike: 10% / Cut: 5%	KONSISTEN (2x) — SNB hold di 1.25%. CHF safe-haven demand terjaga dari geopolitik Timur Tengah.
PBoC	CNY	3.45% 1Y LPR	EASING BIAS	21 Jul 2026	Hold: 60% / Cut: 35% / Hike: 5%	KONSISTEN (5x) — China CPI 9 Jul (f/c 1.1% YoY) + PPI (f/c 4.1% YoY). Deflation terus berlanjut. PBoC easing bias intact.
Bank Indonesia (Warjiyo)	IDR	6.50%	HOLD	22 Jul 2026	Hold: 78% / Hike: 18% / Cut: 4%	KONSISTEN (6x) — BI rate di 6.50% setelah agresif hike. Fokus stabilisasi IDR. CPI Juni 2.8% memberi ruang hold. Next meeting 22 Jul.

Data rate dan probabilitas berdasarkan market pricing per 3 Juli 2026 pasca-NFP. Probabilitas dapat berubah cepat.

UPDATE Pergeseran Probabilitas Akibat Surprise Minggu Lalu

USD (Fed)

Hold ~76%

ISM Services 54.0 IN-LINE — stagflation masih base case, momentum growth melemah. Hike Jul ~24%. NFP 57K = KOREKSI (Prinsip 7). Employment sub-index rebound ke 51.2.

JPY (BoJ)

Hike ~35%

Hike ke 1.00% terkonfirmasi. Tamura: hike tiap beberapa bulan menuju 2%. ~65%+ hike Oktober/November.

EUR (ECB)

Hold 94%

Forum ECB 6–10 Jul = communication risk window minggu ini.

1B Kondisi Pasar Saat Ini

Risk Regime: TRANSISI — NFP Miss Memicu Repricing Signifikan

DXY

100.76

-0.54%, two-week low 100.56

US 10Y Yield

4.48%

Range 4.47-4.50%, 2s10s ~34bp

S&P 500

7,482.70

Flat. Dow record 52,900 (+1.14%)

Nasdaq

25,832.67

-0.80%, AI/semi selloff

VIX

16.15

-2.65%, masih rendah

Brent Oil

~$68.50

XAUUSD

~$4,173

+2.3%, approached $4,200

Bitcoin

~$61,500

+2.4%, recovering from $58K low

⬇ NFP Miss — Dampak Utama

USD Regime Shift Watch: NFP 57K vs 110K konsensus = kejutan -53K. Apakah awal pergeseran Stagflation ke Deflation? Prinsip 7: 1 miss = KOREKSI, bukan pivot. Tapi magnitude signifikan.
Hike probability collapse: 67% pre-NFP → 45-54% post-NFP. Warsh tetap hawkish, tapi data tidak mendukung.
Carry Trade Unwind Risk: COT extremes: specs short max di GBP, JPY, NZD, CAD; long max di USD. NFP miss trigger USD weakness.
Geopolitical Risk: Israel airstrike Gaza (3 Jul). Middle East escalation jadi tail risk safe-haven.

⬆ Selective Risk-On Pockets

BoJ Reflation narrative solid: Tokyo Core CPI 2.7% BEAT. July hike 92% priced. Carry unwind struktural berlanjut.
Gold safe-haven bid: XAUUSD approached $4,200 on geopolitical + USD weakness. +2.3% minggu lalu.
BTC recovery: From 21-month low $58K to $61,500 (+2.4%). Recovery fragile, tergantung NFP follow-through.
Dow record high: 52,900 (+1.14%) — selective risk appetite di US equities.

COT ANALYSIS Positioning Ekstrem — Risiko Squeeze Besar

Aset	ncNet	Persentil	Kategori	Implikasi
USD (DXY)	+12,928	99th	EXTREME_LONG	Specs max long USD. NFP miss = unwind risk tinggi. DXY support 100.00 kritis.
GBP	-105,719	0th!!	EXTREME_SHORT	Record short GBP. Short squeeze potensial jika data UK membaik.
JPY	-146,104	2nd	EXTREME_SHORT	JPY short terbesar. BoJ hike July = squeeze risk #1.
NZD	-54,844	5th	EXTREME_SHORT	RBNZ hike this week = katalis squeeze NZD.
CAD	-146,792	7th	EXTREME_SHORT	CAD short crowded.
XAU	+181,339	24th	BEARISH	Specs still long but declining.
BTC	+3,524	100th	EXTREME_LONG	Specs max long BTC. Contrarian bearish.

RELEVANCE Narrative Baseline — Relevansi Minggu Ini

Narrative	Status	Event Validasi Berikutnya
USD Regime Shift (NFP Aftermath)	SANGAT RELEVAN — minggu kritis konfirmasi	ISM Services 6 Jul, FOMC Minutes 8 Jul, Waller speech
Reflation JPY (BoJ)	SANGAT RELEVAN — July hike 92% priced	Japan PPI 10 Jul, BoJ Jul 29
RBNZ Hike vs Global Dovish Tilt	RELEVAN — divergence play minggu ini	RBNZ Decision 8 Jul ★
China Deflation	RELEVAN — CPI/PPI data 9 Jul	China CPI Jun 9 Jul, PPI Jun 9 Jul

LANGKAH 02

Kalender Ekonomi Dual Layer

2A · REVIEW Baseline 29 Jun – 3 Jul 2026

#	Tanggal	CCY	Event	Konsensus	Aktual	Deviasi	Status	Implikasi Forward
1	29/6 Sen	GBP	Mortgage Approvals Mei	61K	65.2K	+4.2K	✅ IN-LINE	KONFIRMASI ringan — sektor properti UK masih resilient. Tapi 1 data counter tidak cukup untuk membalik Deflation GBP narrative yang sudah 3x konfirmasi.
2	30/6 Sel	JPY	Unemployment Rate Mei	2.5%	2.6%	+0.1ppt	🔻 MISS tipis	1× MELESET pertama untuk labor market JPY. Tapi magnitude kecil. Tetap inline dengan Reflation narrative — labor market masih tight di 2.6%.
3	30/6 Sel	EUR	Germany CPI Prelim Jun	3.0% YoY	2.8% YoY	-0.2ppt	✅ IN-LINE (lower)	KONFIRMASI — inflasi Jerman turun lebih cepat dari ekspektasi. Mendukung narasi disinflasi EUR. ECB hold Jul semakin solid. Bullish untuk EUR/GBP.
4	30/6 Sel	CAD	GDP MoM Apr	+0.4%	+0.3%	-0.1ppt	🔻 MISS	Growth Canada masih soft. BoC hold 4.50% semakin justified. Canada Jobs Report 10 Jul jadi trigger kritis berikutnya.
5	1/7 Rab	USD	ADP Employment Jun	+105K	+82K	-23K	🔻 MISS	SINYAL AWAL — ADP di bawah konsensus = early warning untuk NFP. Private sector hiring melambat signifikan. 1× MELESET labor market.
6	1/7 Rab	CNY	Caixin PMI Manufacturing Jun	50.2	49.8	-0.4	⚡ KEJUTAN BESAR	PMI Manufaktur China kembali kontraksi (<50). Konfirmasi deflasi + permintaan domestik lemah. China CPI & PPI 9 Jul = RESOLUSI kritis.
7	1/7 Rab	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI Jun	53.0	54.0	+1.0	✅ IN-LINE	KONFIRMASI STAGFLATION USD. Manufaktur AS tetap ekspansif. ISM Prices 58.2 BEAT — inflasi produsen masih tinggi. Memperkuat Stagflation narrative: growth OK + prices sticky.
8	1/7 Rab	USD	ISM Mfg Prices Paid Jun	56.0	58.2	+2.2	✅ IN-LINE	Inflasi input manufaktur naik — stagflation pressure. Warsh Fed: ini yang dia warning-kan. Mendukung narasi "higher for longer".
9	2/7 Kam	USD	★ NFP Jun	+110K	+57K	-53K	⚡⚡ KEJUTAN TERBESAR 2026	RESOLUSI TERBESAR — USD REGIME SHIFT WATCH. NFP hanya 57K vs 110K konsensus = miss -53K. Unemployment naik ke 4.2% (vs 4.1% f/c). Probability hike Fed collapse 67%→45%. ISM Services 6 Jul = konfirmasi apakah ini KOREKSI atau TREND BARU.
10	2/7 Kam	USD	Unemployment Rate Jun	4.1%	4.2%	+0.1ppt	🔻 MISS	Unemployment naik 4.1% → 4.2%. Tren kenaikan unemployment 3 bulan berturut-turut. Labor market cooling confirmed.
11	2/7 Kam	USD	Avg Hourly Earnings MoM Jun	+0.3%	+0.3%	IN-LINE	✅ IN-LINE	Wage pressure stabil — tidak memperburuk inflasi. Mixed signal: labor market cooling tapi wages belum turun signifikan.
12	2/7 Kam	USD	Factory Orders MoM Mei	+0.5%	+0.8%	+0.3ppt	✅ IN-LINE	Sektor manufaktur AS masih solid — diverge dengan labor market. Stagflation: growth mixed + prices sticky.
13	3/7 Jum	JPY	Tokyo Core CPI Jun	2.5% YoY	2.7% YoY	+0.2ppt	✅ IN-LINE	KONFIRMASI KE-5 REFLATION JPY. Tokyo CPI leading indicator inflasi nasional. BoJ July hike 92% priced — fully justified. SHORT AUD/JPY, SHORT GBP/JPY tetap valid.
14	3/7 Jum	GEOPOL	Israel Airstrike — Gaza	—	—	—	⚡ GEOPOLITICAL SHOCK	Israel lancarkan serangan udara ke Gaza, menewaskan komandan senior Hamas. Geopolitical risk premium naik — mendorong Gold ke $4,173 (+2.3%) dan safe-haven CHF.
15	6/7 Sen	EUR	PPI Mei MoM	+0.2%	+0.2%	IN-LINE	✅ IN-LINE	KONFIRMASI disinflasi EUR. PPI turun dari +0.7% ke +0.2%. Energy -1.0% drag. Core PPI +0.7% masih elevated. ECB hold Jul semakin solid.
16	6/7 Sen	EUR	Retail Sales Mei MoM	+0.3%	+0.2%	-0.1ppt	🔻 MILD MISS	Recovery dari -0.3% April, tapi masih di bawah ekspektasi. Konsumsi domestik EUR masih lemah. Mixed signal untuk EUR — disinflasi OK, growth soft.
17	6/7 Sen	USD	★ ISM Services PMI Jun	54.0	54.0	IN-LINE	✅ IN-LINE — mixed signal	MIXED — services cooling, tapi employment rebound. 54.0 IN-LINE vs 54.0 konsensus (previous 54.5). Employment 51.2 rebound ke ekspansi (dari 47.9) = bright spot. Prices Paid 67.7 (4-month low). Business Activity & New Orders turun. NFP 57K + ISM cooling = ekonomi melambat, bukan crash.
18	6/7 Sen	USD	Fed Waller speaks	—	—	—	✅ MODERAT	Tidak eksplisit endorse hike. "Following Warsh's lead with limited forward guidance." NFP 57K memoderasi tone hawkish. Market pricing: Hold ~76-78%.

RINGKASAN 2A Tema Dominan Baseline

① NFP 57K — KEJUTAN TERBESAR 2026 → RESOLUSI: ISM Services 54.0 IN-LINE — stagflation masih base case, deflation narrative PREMATURE.

② Reflation JPY — Konfirmasi ke-5 — Tokyo Core CPI 2.7% BEAT. BoJ July hike 92% priced. Jepang dalam siklus reflation paling solid di G10. Divergence play vs AUD, GBP, NZD masih dominan.

③ ISM Services IN-LINE — Stagflation Intact — ISM 54.0 IN-LINE vs 54.0 konsensus. Employment 51.2 rebound ke ekspansi. Prices Paid 67.7 melandai. Ini adalah data terpenting hari ini — mengonfirmasi bahwa NFP 57K adalah noise, bukan sinyal regime shift. Entry USD pairs sekarang BISA.

2B · AGENDA Trigger 6–10 Jul 2026

# Tanggal CCY Event Konsensus Previous Dampak Potensi Surprise Kaitan Baseline

1 6/7 Sen EUR PPI Mei ✅ RILIS +0.2% +0.7% ● MED SEDANG ✅ AKTUAL +0.2% IN-LINE — KONFIRMASI disinflasi EUR. Energy -1.0% drag.

2 6/7 Sen EUR Retail Sales Mei ✅ RILIS +0.3% -0.3% ● MED SEDANG 🔻 AKTUAL +0.2% MILD MISS — konsumsi domestik EUR masih lemah.

3 6/7 Sen USD ★ ISM Services PMI Jun ✅ RILIS 54.0 54.2 ● HIGH TINGGI ✅ AKTUAL 54.0 IN-LINE — SIGNAL MIXED. Employment 51.2 rebound, tapi Business Activity & New Orders turun. Services cooling modestly.

4 6/7 Sen USD Fed Waller speaks ✅ RILIS — — ● HIGH TINGGI ✅ Tone MODERAT — data-dependent hold. Tidak eksplisit endorse hike.

5 7/7 Sel JPY Labor Cash Earnings Mei 2.5% 2.3% ● MED SEDANG KONFIRMASI Reflation JPY jika wages naik

6 7/7 Sel DE Industrial Production Mei 0.3% -0.1% ● MED SEDANG BANTAHAN/KONFIRMASI growth EUR

7 7/7 Sel USD Trade Balance Mei -$68B -$71B ● MED SEDANG BANTAHAN/KONFIRMASI USD demand

8 7/7 Sel GBP BOE Financial Stability Report — — ● MED SEDANG BANTAHAN/KONFIRMASI stabilitas UK

9 7/7 Sel GEOPOL NATO Summit begins (Ankara) — — ● MED SEDANG Geopolitical risk — Middle East fokus

10 8/7 Rab NZD ★ RBNZ Decision 2.50% (+25bps) 2.25% ● HIGH SANGAT TINGGI RESOLUSI TERBESAR MINGGU INI

11 8/7 Rab USD ★ FOMC Minutes — — ● HIGH TINGGI RESOLUSI — post-NFP context. Detail diskusi inflasi & labor market.

12 8/7 Rab PLN Poland Rate Decision 4.75% 4.75% ● MED RENDAH Minor event — dampak ke EUR/CEE terbatas

13 8/7 Rab USD EIA Crude Oil — — ● MED SEDANG Oil inventory — dampak ke CAD, XAU

14 9/7 Kam CNY ★ China CPI Jun 1.1% YoY 0.8% ● HIGH TINGGI RESOLUSI — Deflation China konfirmasi?

15 9/7 Kam CNY ★ China PPI Jun -4.1% YoY -4.5% ● HIGH TINGGI PPI deflation — PBoC easing pressure

16 9/7 Kam EUR ★ ECB Minutes — — ● HIGH TINGGI RESOLUSI — detail diskusi ECB Jun hike.

17 9/7 Kam USD Initial Jobless Claims 4 Jul 220K 215K ● MED SEDANG KONFIRMASI/BANTAHAN labor market cooling

18 9/7 Kam USD Existing Home Sales 4.8M 4.7M ● MED SEDANG KONFIRMASI sektor properti AS

19 9/7 Kam USD NY Fed Williams + Dallas Fed Logan speak — — ● MED SEDANG Fed communication post-NFP

20 9/7 Kam USD PepsiCo Q2 Earnings — — ● MED RENDAH Consumer health proxy

21 10/7 Jum JPY Japan PPI Jun 2.8% 2.5% ● HIGH TINGGI KONFIRMASI Reflation JPY — PPI naik = producer inflation

22 10/7 Jum DE CPI Final Jun 2.8% 2.8% ● MED SEDANG KONFIRMASI final inflasi Jerman

23 10/7 Jum FR CPI Final Jun 2.5% 2.5% ● MED SEDANG KONFIRMASI final inflasi Prancis

24 10/7 Jum CAD ★ Canada Jobs Report Jun +18K +22K ● HIGH TINGGI RESOLUSI — kesehatan labor market Canada.

PRIORITY Top 5 Event Priority Ranking Minggu Ini

🥇

★ ISM Services PMI Jun — 6 Jul 10:00 ET (21:00 WIB)

T1 KRITIS. Post-NFP konfirmasi pertama. Konsensus 54.0 vs previous 54.5. BEAT >55 = stagflation intact, USD relief rally. MISS <50 = deflation narrative, DXY breakdown 100.00. Dampak ke SEMUA USD pairs, XAUUSD, BTC.

USD

🥈

★ RBNZ Decision — 8 Jul ~04:00 WIB

T1. 80% probability hike +25bps ke 2.50%. Divergence play utama vs global dovish tilt pasca-NFP. Jika HIKE: NZD rally 50-80 pips, SHORT AUD/NZD valid. Jika HOLD: shock dovish — NZD crash 100+ pips.

NZD

🥉

★ FOMC Minutes — 8 Jul 2:00 PM ET (9 Jul 01:00 WIB)

T1. Detail diskusi FOMC sebelum NFP miss. Seberapa hawkish komite sebenarnya? Jika Minutes reveal split serius = USD volatility spike. Jika dovish undertone = konfirmasi NFP, DXY breakdown.

USD

④

★ China CPI + PPI Jun — 9 Jul 9:30 PM ET (10 Jul 08:30 WIB)

T1. CPI f/c 1.1% YoY (vs 0.8% prior), PPI f/c -4.1% YoY (vs -4.5% prior). Apakah deflasi China membaik? PBoC easing pressure. Dampak langsung ke AUD, CNH, dan EM Asia pairs.

CNY/AUD

⑤

★ ECB Minutes (9 Jul) + Canada Jobs (10 Jul)

T1/T2. ECB Minutes: sinyal Jul hike/tahan? Pasca-NFP weak, EUR/USD bisa rally jika ECB tetap hawkish. Canada Jobs: f/c +18K vs +22K prior — konfirmasi soft labor market CAD.

EUR/CAD

2C · CB DASHBOARD Central Bank Policy — Komunikasi Minggu Ini

★ RBNZ Rate Decision (8 Jul) — meeting terjadwal satu-satunya minggu ini. 80% prob hike +25bps ke 2.50%. Vote split terakhir 3-3 — decisive vote di tangan Gubernur Breman. FOMC Minutes (8 Jul) bukan meeting tapi minutes dari diskusi internal — tidak ada vote baru.

Bank Sentral Event Waktu (WIB) Market Pricing Risiko Kejutan

★ RBNZ (Breman) Rate Decision + Statement + Press Conference 8 Jul ~04:00 WIB Hike 80% / Hold 20% Jika HIKE: NZD rally divergence play. Jika HOLD: shock dovish — NZD crash.

Fed (Warsh) FOMC Minutes (Jun meeting — no actual meeting) 8 Jul 02:00 PM ET (9 Jul 01:00 WIB) Hold Jul ~54% / Hike 45% Post-NFP context kritis. Detail inflasi vs labor market discussion.

Fed (Waller) Speech — first Fed official post-NFP 6 Jul Hawkish-Hold expected Waller biasanya hawkish. Tapi NFP 57K mungkin moderasi tone-nya.

ECB (Lagarde) ECB Minutes (Jun meeting) 9 Jul 07:30 AM ET Hold 90% untuk Jul Detail diskusi di balik hike 25bps Jun. Sinyal untuk Juli.

Fed (Williams + Logan) Dual speech 9 Jul Mixed expected Williams dovish, Logan hawkish — netral mungkin.

#	Tanggal	CCY	Event	Konsensus	Previous	Dampak	Potensi Surprise	Kaitan Baseline
1	6/7 Sen	EUR	PPI Mei ✅ RILIS	+0.2%	+0.7%	● MED	SEDANG	✅ AKTUAL +0.2% IN-LINE — KONFIRMASI disinflasi EUR. Energy -1.0% drag.
2	6/7 Sen	EUR	Retail Sales Mei ✅ RILIS	+0.3%	-0.3%	● MED	SEDANG	🔻 AKTUAL +0.2% MILD MISS — konsumsi domestik EUR masih lemah.
3	6/7 Sen	USD	★ ISM Services PMI Jun ✅ RILIS	54.0	54.2	● HIGH	TINGGI	✅ AKTUAL 54.0 IN-LINE — SIGNAL MIXED. Employment 51.2 rebound, tapi Business Activity & New Orders turun. Services cooling modestly.
4	6/7 Sen	USD	Fed Waller speaks ✅ RILIS	—	—	● HIGH	TINGGI	✅ Tone MODERAT — data-dependent hold. Tidak eksplisit endorse hike.
5	7/7 Sel	JPY	Labor Cash Earnings Mei	2.5%	2.3%	● MED	SEDANG	KONFIRMASI Reflation JPY jika wages naik
6	7/7 Sel	DE	Industrial Production Mei	0.3%	-0.1%	● MED	SEDANG	BANTAHAN/KONFIRMASI growth EUR
7	7/7 Sel	USD	Trade Balance Mei	-$68B	-$71B	● MED	SEDANG	BANTAHAN/KONFIRMASI USD demand
8	7/7 Sel	GBP	BOE Financial Stability Report	—	—	● MED	SEDANG	BANTAHAN/KONFIRMASI stabilitas UK
9	7/7 Sel	GEOPOL	NATO Summit begins (Ankara)	—	—	● MED	SEDANG	Geopolitical risk — Middle East fokus
10	8/7 Rab	NZD	★ RBNZ Decision	2.50% (+25bps)	2.25%	● HIGH	SANGAT TINGGI	RESOLUSI TERBESAR MINGGU INI
11	8/7 Rab	USD	★ FOMC Minutes	—	—	● HIGH	TINGGI	RESOLUSI — post-NFP context. Detail diskusi inflasi & labor market.
12	8/7 Rab	PLN	Poland Rate Decision	4.75%	4.75%	● MED	RENDAH	Minor event — dampak ke EUR/CEE terbatas
13	8/7 Rab	USD	EIA Crude Oil	—	—	● MED	SEDANG	Oil inventory — dampak ke CAD, XAU
14	9/7 Kam	CNY	★ China CPI Jun	1.1% YoY	0.8%	● HIGH	TINGGI	RESOLUSI — Deflation China konfirmasi?
15	9/7 Kam	CNY	★ China PPI Jun	-4.1% YoY	-4.5%	● HIGH	TINGGI	PPI deflation — PBoC easing pressure
16	9/7 Kam	EUR	★ ECB Minutes	—	—	● HIGH	TINGGI	RESOLUSI — detail diskusi ECB Jun hike.
17	9/7 Kam	USD	Initial Jobless Claims 4 Jul	220K	215K	● MED	SEDANG	KONFIRMASI/BANTAHAN labor market cooling
18	9/7 Kam	USD	Existing Home Sales	4.8M	4.7M	● MED	SEDANG	KONFIRMASI sektor properti AS
19	9/7 Kam	USD	NY Fed Williams + Dallas Fed Logan speak	—	—	● MED	SEDANG	Fed communication post-NFP
20	9/7 Kam	USD	PepsiCo Q2 Earnings	—	—	● MED	RENDAH	Consumer health proxy
21	10/7 Jum	JPY	Japan PPI Jun	2.8%	2.5%	● HIGH	TINGGI	KONFIRMASI Reflation JPY — PPI naik = producer inflation
22	10/7 Jum	DE	CPI Final Jun	2.8%	2.8%	● MED	SEDANG	KONFIRMASI final inflasi Jerman
23	10/7 Jum	FR	CPI Final Jun	2.5%	2.5%	● MED	SEDANG	KONFIRMASI final inflasi Prancis
24	10/7 Jum	CAD	★ Canada Jobs Report Jun	+18K	+22K	● HIGH	TINGGI	RESOLUSI — kesehatan labor market Canada.

Bank Sentral	Event	Waktu (WIB)	Market Pricing	Risiko Kejutan
★ RBNZ (Breman)	Rate Decision + Statement + Press Conference	8 Jul ~04:00 WIB	Hike 80% / Hold 20%	Jika HIKE: NZD rally divergence play. Jika HOLD: shock dovish — NZD crash.
Fed (Warsh)	FOMC Minutes (Jun meeting — no actual meeting)	8 Jul 02:00 PM ET (9 Jul 01:00 WIB)	Hold Jul ~54% / Hike 45%	Post-NFP context kritis. Detail inflasi vs labor market discussion.
Fed (Waller)	Speech — first Fed official post-NFP	6 Jul	Hawkish-Hold expected	Waller biasanya hawkish. Tapi NFP 57K mungkin moderasi tone-nya.
ECB (Lagarde)	ECB Minutes (Jun meeting)	9 Jul 07:30 AM ET	Hold 90% untuk Jul	Detail diskusi di balik hike 25bps Jun. Sinyal untuk Juli.
Fed (Williams + Logan)	Dual speech	9 Jul	Mixed expected	Williams dovish, Logan hawkish — netral mungkin.

LANGKAH 03
Skenario Per Mata Uang

🇺🇸

US Dollar

USD · DXY

Post-NFP: Dovish Shift ▼

DXY
100.76
-0.54%, low 100.56

Postur CB
Hawkish-Hold

Track Record
KONSISTEN (3x)

NFP Jun
57K — KEJUTAN BESAR

Hike Prob (Jul)
45-54%

ISM Services
F/c 54.0

Baseline (3A) — UPDATED 6 JUL: NFP 57K = KOREKSI, BUKAN PIVOT. ISM Services PMI 6 Jul 54.0 IN-LINE vs 54.0 konsensus + Employment sub-index rebound ke 51.2 (dari kontraksi 47.9) = Stagflation masih base case — tapi momentum growth softening. Prices Paid 67.7 melandai (4-month low). Prinsip 7 validated: 1 data miss bukan regime shift. DXY recovery dari 100.76 ke ~101.00+. Prob hike Fed stabil ~24%. SHORT USD agresif BERISIKO.

Keping Pending (3B): ISM Services ✅ RILIS (T1 TERPASANG) + FOMC Minutes 8 Jul (T1) + Williams/Logan 9 Jul + Fed Waller speech ✅ RILIS (moderat).

🐂 Skenario Bull (USD Menguat)

ISM Services IN-LINE besar (>55) = stagflation USD dikonfirmasi lagi

FOMC Minutes hawkish: inflasi masih jadi concern utama

Waller hawkish: "data dependent but inflation non-negotiable"

DXY rebound ke 101.50+. Pair terbaik LONG USD: USD/JPY, EUR/USD SHORT

🐻 Skenario Bear (USD Melemah)

ISM Services MISS (<50) = deflation narrative menguat

FOMC Minutes dovish: concern labor market cooling outweighs inflation

Waller speech moderate: "need more data before hiking"

DXY breakdown 100.00 → target 99.00. SHORT USD across the board.

➡️ Skenario Netral

ISM Services IN-LINE (52-53) + FOMC Minutes balanced

DXY range 100.50-101.50. Pasar tunggu CPI berikutnya.

⚠️ Tail Risk

NATO summit escalation (Ankara) → safe-haven USD rally

Middle East baru → emergency USD bid

✅ BLACKOUT ISM Services: LIFTED. FOMC Minutes 8 Jul masih blackout. Rekomendasi: CAUTION — MIXED signal. ISM IN-LINE + NFP MISS = ekonomi cooling, bukan crash. USD tidak cukup kuat untuk rally agresif, tidak cukup lemah untuk breakdown. Tunggu FOMC Minutes 8 Jul untuk arah lebih jelas. Size kecil jika entry sekarang.

🇪🇺

Euro

EUR · EUR/USD · EUR/GBP · EUR/CHF

Hold Bias ▼

Postur CB
Hawkish-Hold

Track Record
KONSISTEN (2x)

Rate
2.25%

Next Meeting
23 Jul 2026

ECB Minutes
9 Jul

PPI Mei
6 Jul

Baseline (3A) — UPDATED 6 JUL: ECB di 2.25% setelah hike Jun. Flash CPI EA Jun 1.9% (turun signifikan). PPI Mei +0.2% IN-LINE — disinflasi terkonfirmasi, energy -1.0% drag. Retail Sales Mei +0.2% MILD MISS — konsumsi domestik masih lemah. ECB hold bias untuk Juli 23 tetap solid. LONG EUR/GBP dan EUR/CHF tetap valid — divergensi vs BoE dovish dan SNB.

Keping Pending (3B): PPI ✅ RILIS + Retail Sales ✅ RILIS + ECB Minutes 9 Jul (T2 — detail diskusi hike Jun).

🐂 Skenario Bull (EUR Menguat)

ECB Minutes hawkish: "further normalization needed despite energy drop"

PPI BEAT + Retail Sales BEAT = growth EUR stabil

USD lemah post-NFP = EUR/USD LONG

Pair terbaik: EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF, EUR/USD

🐻 Skenario Bear (EUR Melemah)

ECB Minutes dovish: "energy MOU reduces inflation pressure — patience"

PPI MISS = deflation produsen merembet ke CPI

EUR/USD turun ke 1.08

Pair terbaik SHORT EUR: EUR/JPY

➡️ Skenario Netral

Data IN-LINE + Minutes balanced = EUR range-bound

EUR focus via crosses (EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF)

⚠️ Tail Risk

Energy price spike dari Middle East escalation → ECB hawkish emergency

✅ Rekomendasi: LONG EUR/GBP dan EUR/CHF adalah conviction play. EUR/USD: SHORT — ISM IN-LINE = USD edge. PPI + Retail Sales data mixed, tidak mengubah narrative.

🇬🇧

British Pound

GBP · EUR/GBP · GBP/JPY

HOLD — Deflation Risk ▼

Postur CB
HOLD

Track Record
KONSISTEN (2x)

Rate
5.25%

Next Meeting
6 Agt 2026

COT
EXTREME_SHORT (0th %ile)

FSR
7 Jul

Baseline (3A): GBP tertekan oleh deflation narrative. COT positioning: record short GBP (-105,719 ncNet, 0th percentile). Ini adalah posisi short paling ekstrem. Short squeeze potensial jika data UK membaik. Tapi BoE hold di 5.25%, Financial Stability Report 7 Jul jadi event minggu ini. EUR/GBP LONG tetap conviction tinggi.

Keping Pending (3B): BOE Financial Stability Report 7 Jul. Tidak ada data hard UK minggu ini — GBP akan lebih digerakkan oleh external factors (USD, EUR).

🐂 Skenario Bull (GBP Menguat)

COT short squeeze: short covering jika tidak ada berita negatif

USD weak post-NFP = GBP relief rally

EUR/GBP koreksi teknikal — peluang entry lebih baik

🐻 Skenario Bear (GBP Melemah)

Deflation narrative intact — BoE hold extended sampai 2027

EUR/GBP naik ke 0.880+

GBP/JPY SHORT: BoE dovish vs BoJ hawkish

➡️ Skenario Netral

GBP range-bound. Tidak ada data UK high-impact.

⚠️ Tail Risk

Short squeeze massal jika NATO summit menghasilkan positive surprise untuk UK

⏸ Rekomendasi: ENTRY EUR/GBP LONG tetap prioritas. SHORT GBP/JPY secondary. GBP direct trade: hindari, gunakan sebagai leg di cross.

🇯🇵

Japanese Yen

JPY · USD/JPY · EUR/JPY · GBP/JPY

HIKE BIAS — July 92% ▼

Postur CB
HIKE BIAS

Track Record
KONSISTEN (4x)

Rate
0.50%

July Hike Prob
~92%

Tokyo CPI Jun
2.7% BEAT

Conviction
★★★★

Baseline (3A): BoJ hiking cycle intact — KONSISTEN 4x. Tokyo Core CPI 2.7% YoY BEAT (3 Jul). July hike near fully priced (92%). Carry trade unwind risk adalah tema terbesar: COT JPY short di -146,104 ncNet (2nd percentile) — potensi squeeze sangat besar. Japan PPI 10 Jul = konfirmasi lebih lanjut. Labor Cash Earnings 7 Jul = data wages kritis.

Keping Pending (3B): Labor Cash Earnings Mei 7 Jul, Japan PPI Jun 10 Jul (T2 kritis).

🐂 Skenario Bull JPY (JPY Menguat)

Labor Cash Earnings BEAT (>2.5%) = wages naik, BoJ confidence naik

Japan PPI BEAT = producer inflation merembet

Carry trade unwind: NFP miss trigger risk-off, JPY short covered

Pair terbaik: SHORT GBP/JPY, SHORT EUR/JPY, SHORT AUD/JPY

🐻 Skenario Bear JPY (JPY Melemah)

Labor Cash Earnings MISS — wages tidak tumbuh = BoJ delay hike

Risk-on dari NATO summit positive surprise = carry trade kembali

➡️ Skenario Netral

Data IN-LINE, JPY range-bound vs USD.

JPY crosses tetap bias bearish untuk high-yielders.

⚠️ Tail Risk

BoJ emergency meeting (sangat rendah probabilitas)

Yen squeeze extreme jika risk-off global + BoJ hawkish signal simultan

⭐ Rekomendasi: ENTRY SHORT GBP/JPY dan SHORT EUR/JPY adalah prioritas tertinggi. Puzzle JPY sudah LENGKAP. Blackout: Japan PPI 10 Jul.

🇦🇺

Australian Dollar

AUD · AUD/JPY · AUD/USD · AUD/NZD

HOLD — Campuran ▼

Postur CB
HOLD

Track Record
MELESET (1x)

Rate
4.35%

COT
NEUTRAL (42nd %ile)

China Caixin PMI
49.8 MISS

Next RBA
4 Agt 2026

Baseline (3A): RBA hold dengan dovish surprise terakhir (1x meleset). China Caixin PMI Mfg 49.8 (kontraksi) = headwind untuk AUD via demand komoditas. COT NETRAL — tidak ada positioning ekstrem. AUD terhimpit: China deflation vs RBA hold vs USD dynamics. China CPI/PPI 9 Jul jadi event kunci.

Keping Pending (3B): China CPI Jun + PPI Jun 9 Jul (T1 untuk AUD proxy). NATO Summit (geopolitical risk).

🐂 Skenario Bull (AUD Menguat)

China CPI BEAT (>1.5%) = deflation narrative terbantahkan

USD weak post-NFP = AUD/USD relief

Pair terbaik: AUD/NZD (jika RBNZ hold), AUD/CHF

🐻 Skenario Bear (AUD Melemah)

China CPI + PPI MISS = deflation China makin dalam

China demand komoditas turun → AUD selloff

Pair terbaik SHORT: AUD/JPY, AUD/USD

➡️ Skenario Netral

AUD range-bound. Tidak cukup katalis untuk directional move besar.

⚠️ Tail Risk

NATO summit escalation → risk-off → AUD/JPY selloff tajam.

⏸ Rekomendasi: WAIT AND SEE untuk AUD direct. Gunakan sebagai short leg di AUD/JPY SHORT. China data 9 Jul adalah trigger utama.

🇳🇿

New Zealand Dollar

NZD · NZD/USD · AUD/NZD

★ HIKE 8 JUL — 80% ▼

Postur CB
Hawkish

Track Record
KONSISTEN (3x)

Rate Today
2.25%

Expected
2.50% (+25bps)

COT
EXTREME_SHORT (5th)

Meeting
8 Jul ★

★ EVENT MINGGU INI — RBNZ Decision 8 Jul. Expected hike 25bps ke 2.50% (80% prob). KONSISTEN track record (3x). COT: NZD short di -54,844 ncNet (5th percentile) — EXTREME_SHORT. Jika RBNZ hike = massive short squeeze potensial. AUD/NZD SHORT adalah trade terbaik minggu ini.

🐂 Skenario Bull NZD (RBNZ HIKE)

RBNZ hike 25bps + hawkish statement: "inflation still above target, more to come"

Short squeeze NZD: COT extreme short + hike = rally tajam

Pair terbaik: SHORT AUD/NZD, LONG NZD/USD, NZD/JPY LONG

Target AUD/NZD: 1.1200–1.1300

🐻 Skenario Bear NZD (RBNZ HOLD)

RBNZ hold 2.25% = MASSIVE DOVISH SURPRISE (20% prob)

Breman: "global uncertainty, need to assess more data"

NZD crash — AUD/NZD LONG, NZD/USD SHORT

Target AUD/NZD: 1.1600+

➡️ Skenario Mixed

Hike + dovish statement (one and done) → NZD rally terbatas, fade the rally.

⚠️ Tail Risk

Hike 50bps (<5% prob) → NZD spike ekstrem. HOLD + massive dovish → NZD crash.

⭐ REKOMENDASI: SIAGA — TUNGGU RBNZ 8 JUL. SHORT AUD/NZD adalah play divergence terbaik minggu ini. Jika RBNZ hike → entry SHORT AUD/NZD dengan target 1.1200. Jika hold → REVERSAL: LONG AUD/NZD.

🇨🇦

Canadian Dollar

CAD · USD/CAD

HOLD — Side-line ▼

Postur CB
HOLD

Track Record
KONSISTEN (1x)

Rate
4.50%

Next Meeting
15 Jul 2026

COT
EXTREME_SHORT

Canada Jobs
10 Jul

Baseline: BoC hold 4.50%. Side-line minggu ini — Canada Jobs Report 10 Jul adalah satu-satunya trigger. USD/CAD akan lebih digerakkan oleh USD dynamics (ISM, FOMC Minutes) daripada data CAD individual. COT: CAD short crowded (-146,792 ncNet) — risiko squeeze.

Trigger 3B: Canada Jobs Report Jun 10 Jul (T2, konsensus +18K). IEA Oil Market Report 10 Jul.

🐂 Skenario Bull (CAD Menguat)

Canada Jobs BEAT (>25K) + Unemployment turun → CAD rally vs USD. Oil report positif juga tailwind.

🐻 Skenario Bear (CAD Melemah)

Canada Jobs MISS (<10K) = BoC bias dovish → CAD selloff. CAD short crowded bisa bertambah.

➡️ Netral
Data IN-LINE. Range-bound. Await BoC 15 Jul.

⚠️ Tail Risk
Oil supply shock dari Middle East → CAD spike (oil proxy).

⏸ Rekomendasi: WAIT. Canada Jobs 10 Jul terlalu jauh untuk entry sekarang.

🇨🇭

Swiss Franc

CHF · EUR/CHF · USD/CHF

HOLD — Safe Haven ▼

Postur CB
HOLD

Track Record
KONSISTEN (2x)

Rate
1.25%

Next Meeting
Sep 2026

COT
BEARISH (15th)

Risk
Safe-haven demand aktif

Status: SNB hold di 1.25%. CHF safe-haven demand terjaga dari Middle East escalation (Israel airstrike Gaza + NATO Summit Ankara). EUR/CHF LONG tetap valid dengan ECB rate advantage (2.25% vs 1.25%). COT: CHF short di -41,094 (15th percentile) — BEARISH, ada ruang untuk short squeeze jika geopolitik eskalasi.

Event 3B: Tidak ada data CHF spesifik minggu ini. CHF akan digerakkan oleh risk sentiment global (NATO Summit, Middle East).

✅ Rekomendasi: LONG EUR/CHF conviction ★★★. Jika risk-off eskalasi, tutup EUR/CHF dan pindah ke USD/CHF LONG (safe-haven).

🇨🇳

Chinese Yuan

CNY / CNH

DEFLATION — Easing Bias ▼

Postur PBoC
EASING BIAS

LPR 1Y
3.45%

Caixin Mfg PMI
49.8 KONTRAKSI

Track Record
KONSISTEN (5x)

CPI f/c 9 Jul
1.1% YoY

PPI f/c 9 Jul
-4.1% YoY

Status: DEFLATION CHINA — PBoC EASING BIAS. Caixin PMI Mfg 49.8 kontraksi. CPI 9 Jul f/c 1.1% YoY (rendah), PPI -4.1% (deflasi produsen). PBoC KONSISTEN easing bias (5x). Next LPR 21 Jul. Data 9 Jul akan konfirmasi deflation narrative.

📉 Jika CPI/PPI MISS

Deflation confirmed → PBoC cut LPR lebih cepat. AUD bearish (proxy komoditas). CNH melemah.

📈 Jika CPI BEAT (>1.5%)

Deflation narrative sedikit terbantahkan → AUD bounce. Tapi PPI -4.1% expected tetap deflation.

➡️ Rekomendasi
AVOID direct CNY trade. China data = proxy untuk AUD positioning.

🇮🇩

Indonesian Rupiah

IDR · USD/IDR

HOLD — Stabilisasi ▼

Postur BI
HOLD

Track Record
KONSISTEN (6x)

Rate BI
6.50%

CPI Jun
2.8% (IN-LINE)

Next Meeting
22 Jul 2026

Status
Stabilisasi

Baseline (3A): BI rate di 6.50% setelah agresif hike. CPI Juni 2.8% (dalam target 2.5%±1%) memberi ruang hold. BI KONSISTEN (6x). IDR stabilisasi setelah periode tekanan. Next meeting 22 Jul — expected HOLD. USD/IDR akan dipengaruhi oleh USD dynamics global.

Trigger: Tidak ada data IDR spesifik minggu ini. IDR dipengaruhi oleh risk sentiment global dan USD direction.

🐂 Skenario Bull IDR

USD weak post-NFP + risk-on global = IDR menguat. USD/IDR turun.

🐻 Skenario Bear IDR

Risk-off dari NATO/Middle East escalation = USD/IDR naik. Tapi BI siap intervensi.

BI rate 6.50% memberikan carry advantage signifikan. Untuk investor domestik, IDR hold adalah strategi yang tepat. Untuk trader, side-line — terlalu banyak variabel global.

🥇

Gold — XAUUSD

XAU/USD · Multi-Aset

Bullish — Post-NFP ▼

XAU/USD
~$4,173
Range: $4,100–$4,200

Minggu Lalu
+2.3%
Approached $4,200

DXY
100.76

US 10Y Real Yield
2.15-2.20%

COT Specs
ncNet +181,339 (24th)

Geopolitical
HIGH — Tailwind

Baseline (3A): Gold +2.3% minggu lalu, approached $4,200 on dual catalyst: (1) NFP 57K miss = USD weakness, (2) Israel airstrike Gaza = geopolitical bid. DXY turun ke 100.76 memberikan support kuat untuk gold. Real yield masih tinggi (2.15-2.20%) tapi USD weakness override factor. COT: specs still long tapi declining (24th percentile) — belum crowded.

SCORECARDMulti-Driver Gold Analysis

Driver Kondisi Price-In? Sinyal Gold Bobot Event 3B

DXY Trend ~101.00 — recovery post-ISM IN-LINE Sebagian ➡️ Mixed 30% 30% ISM Services ✅ RILIS 54.0 IN-LINE, FOMC Minutes

Real Yield AS ~2.15-2.20% — masih tinggi Sebagian ⬇️ Bearish 25% 25% FOMC Minutes, Waller

Geopolitical Risk Middle East aktif, Israel Gaza, NATO Summit Partially ⬆️ Bullish 25% 25% NATO Summit Ankara, Israel

CB Buying Struktural EM CB >1,000 ton/tahun Provide floor ⬆️ Bullish offset 15% 15% Structural — tidak ada 3B

COT Positioning Declining from extreme — sehat Sudah turun ⬆️ Netral-Bullish 5% 5% Tidak langsung

Overall Gold Bias: NETRAL-BULLISH — ISM IN-LINE mengurangi urgensi
• ISM Services IN-LINE 54.0 + Employment 51.2 rebound = Gold netral jangka pendek — ISM IN-LINE
• Gold pullback dari $4,200 ke $4,150-$4,170 area
• FOMC Minutes 8 Jul masih bisa trigger either direction
• Base case: Gold range $4,080–$4,200

🐂 Bullish Case
FOMC Minutes dovish + Geopolitical escalation = Gold $4,300+
Entry siaga di $4,080–$4,120
Target $4,300-$4,500

🐻 Bearish Case
ISM Services IN-LINE ✅ + FOMC hawkish = Gold bisa ke $4,050
COT masih long — flush risk jika risk-on kembali

⭐ Rekomendasi: CONDITIONAL LONG — Entry siaga $4,080–$4,120. ISM IN-LINE = neutral, tunggu pullback lebih dalam atau konfirmasi FOMC dovish.

₿

Bitcoin

BTC/USD · Multi-Aset Kripto

Recovery — Fragile ▼

BTC/USD
~$61,500
+2.4% from $58K low

21-Month Low
$58,000
Emergency support level

COT Specs
EXTREME_LONG (100th)

Fear & Greed
~30 (Fear)

NFP Impact
+2.4% recovery

Support Kritis
$58K (21-mo low)

Baseline (3A): BTC recovered from 21-month low $58K to $61,500 (+2.4%) post-NFP miss. NFP 57K = USD weakness = risk-on temporer untuk BTC. Tapi COT menunjukkan specs EXTREME_LONG di 100th percentile — contrarian bearish signal. Fear & Greed ~30 (Fear). Recovery masih fragile — tergantung follow-through ISM Services dan FOMC Minutes.

Faktor Kondisi Price-In? Sinyal Event 3B

DXY 100.76 — post-NFP weakness Sebagian ⬆️ Bullish BTC ISM Services, FOMC Minutes

Risk Appetite Fear ~30, recovering from 24 Sebagian ➡️ Improving ISM Services

COT Positioning Extreme long — CONTRARIAN BEARISH Not priced ⬇️ Bearish —

Regulatory Binance MiCA license lost Mostly priced ⬇️ Bearish —

🐂 Bull Case
ISM Services MISS + FOMC Minutes dovish + DXY breakdown 100 = BTC relief ke $65K–$68K. Entry siaga $60K. Target $65K. COT extreme long = risiko crowded exit.

🐻 Bear Case
ISM IN-LINE + hawkish surprise = BTC retest $58K. Break $58K = bearish ke $55K. COT extreme long = crowded trade — selloff bisa cepat.

⏸ Rekomendasi: WAIT AND SEE. BTC recovery fragile. COT extreme long adalah contrarian warning. $58K = emergency exit level.

LANGKAH 04
Currency Divergence Matrix

4A Tabel Heat Map Divergensi — Post-NFP

Pair CB Divergensi Carry (Rate Diff) Growth Divergensi Momentum Overall Bias Conviction Price-In Event 3B Kritis

AUD/NZD RBA Hold vs RBNZ Hike Expected AUD 4.35% vs NZD 2.25% (AUD carry adv.) AUD stagflasi vs NZD reflasi BEARISH AUD/NZD SHORT AUD/NZD ★★★★ HIGH RBNZ Decision 8 Jul

EUR/GBP ECB Hold vs BoE Hold (EUR relatively hawkish) ECB 2.25% vs BoE 5.25% (GBP yield adv.) EUR reflation vs GBP deflation BULLISH EUR/GBP LONG EUR/GBP ★★★★ MED ECB Minutes 9 Jul

EUR/CHF ECB Hold vs SNB Hold (rate diff persists) ECB 2.25% vs SNB 1.25% (EUR adv.) EUR reflasi vs CHF deflasi BULLISH EUR/CHF LONG EUR/CHF ★★★ MED ECB Minutes 9 Jul

GBP/JPY BoE Hold vs BoJ Hike Bias BoE 5.25% vs BoJ 0.50% (GBP carry adv.) GBP deflasi vs JPY reflasi BEARISH GBP/JPY SHORT GBP/JPY ★★★★★ MED Japan PPI 10 Jul

EUR/USD ECB Hold vs Fed Hold — ISM IN-LINE = no edge ECB 2.25% vs Fed 5.50% (USD adv.) Divergensi minimal NEUTRAL — MIXED signal Range-Bound ★★★★★ HIGH ISM Services ✅ 54.0 IN-LINE, FOMC Minutes 8 Jul

USD/JPY Fed Hold vs BoJ Hike Bias Fed 5.50% vs BoJ 0.50% (USD adv.) USD stagflasi vs JPY reflasi NEUTRAL (JPY bias) SHORT jangka menengah ★★★★★ HIGH ISM Services + Japan PPI 10 Jul

LANGKAH 05
Ringkasan Eksekutif

5A Macro Themes Dominan

TEMA 01

"USD Regime Shift — NFP Miss Memicu Repricing Besar"

Latar Belakang (3A)NFP Jun 57K vs 110K konsensus = kejutan -53K. Ini adalah miss NFP terbesar sejak 2024. Prinsip 7: 1 miss = KOREKSI, bukan pivot. Tapi magnitude signifikan. Apakah ini awal pergeseran dari Stagflation ke Deflation untuk US? ISM Services 6 Jul (konsensus 54.0) adalah konfirmasi kritis. Probabilitas hike Fed collapse dari 67% ke 45-54%.

Price-In LevelHike Jul: 45-54% (turun dari 67%). Hold Jul jadi baseline baru. Pasar mulai price-in kemungkinan no hike 2026.

Event 3B MemperkuatISM Services BEAT (>55) + FOMC Minutes hawkish = stagflation narrative intact, DXY rebound. → ISM actual 54.0 IN-LINE — tidak memenuhi threshold BEAT.

Event 3B MembalikISM Services MISS (<50) + FOMC Minutes dovish = deflation narrative, DXY breakdown 100.00.

Apa yang masih bisa surpriseISM Services tepat di konsensus 52-53 = mixed signal, pasar bingung. FOMC Minutes bisa reveal split serius di komite.

Implikasi FXUSD bearish jika ISM MISS (<50). ISM actual 54.0 IN-LINE = USD netral. EUR/USD range-bound menunggu FOMC Minutes 8 Jul.

Implikasi GoldBULLISH jika ISM MISS + geopolitik. Target $4,300-$4,500.

Implikasi BTCConditional: ISM MISS = relief ke $65K. ISM IN-LINE = retest $58K.

Aset Paling SensitifDXY, XAUUSD, BTC, USD/JPY.

TEMA 02

"Carry Trade Unwind — COT Extremes Siap Squeeze"

Latar Belakang (3A)COT positioning minggu lalu menunjukkan ekstrem berbahaya: specs long maksimum USD (99th percentile), short maksimum GBP (0th!!), JPY (2nd), NZD (5th), CAD (7th). NFP miss memicu awal USD weakness. Jika ISM Services juga MISS, kita bisa melihat short squeeze besar-besaran di funding currencies (JPY, CHF) dan GBP. BoJ July hike 92% priced menambah risiko carry unwind.

Price-In LevelBelum fully priced — positioning masih ekstrem. Potensi squeeze besar jika katalis terkonfirmasi.

Event 3B MemperkuatISM Services MISS + RBNZ Hike + Japan PPI BEAT = triple katalis carry unwind.

Event 3B MembalikISM Services IN-LINE besar + FOMC hawkish = USD relief, carry trade kembali.

Implikasi FXSHORT GBP/JPY (prioritas), SHORT EUR/JPY (secondary), SHORT AUD/NZD (divergence play).

TEMA 03

"RBNZ Hawks vs Global Dovish Tilt — Divergence Play Terbaik"

Latar Belakang (3A)RBNZ expected to hike 25bps ke 2.50% pada 8 Jul (80% prob). COT: NZD extreme short (5th percentile). Global backdrop: Fed melemah post-NFP, ECB hold, BoJ hike. Jika RBNZ tetap hike di tengah global dovish tilt, ini akan jadi divergence play paling menarik minggu ini. SHORT AUD/NZD adalah trade terbaik — RBA hold vs RBNZ hike.

Price-In LevelHike 80% priced — tetapi COT NZD short masih ekstrem, artinya hike belum fully price-in via positioning.

Event 3B MemperkuatRBNZ hike + hawkish statement = NZD squeeze, AUD/NZD turun ke 1.1200.

Event 3B MembalikRBNZ HOLD (20% prob) = NZD crash, AUD/NZD naik ke 1.1600+.

Implikasi FXSHORT AUD/NZD (jika hike), LONG AUD/NZD (jika hold). Binary event — siap dua arah.

5B Trade Priority Matrix

🥇 1 SHORT AUD/NZD FX Cross Bearish AUD RBNZ Decision 8 Jul ★★★★ 1.1350–1.1450 1.1100–1.1200 1.1550 MED RBNZ HOLD = posisi invalid — reversal ke LONG

🥈 2 SHORT GBP/JPY FX Cross Bearish Japan PPI 10 Jul + BoJ Jul 29 ★★★★ 193–195 185–188 198 MED COT GBP extreme short — squeeze risk, size kecil

🥉 3 LONG EUR/GBP FX Cross Bullish ECB Minutes 9 Jul ★★★★ 0.865–0.875 0.890–0.900 0.855 MED GBP short squeeze bisa koreksi entry

⑤ LONG EUR/CHF FX Cross Bullish ECB Minutes 9 Jul ★★★★★ 0.935–0.940 0.955–0.965 0.925 MED Geopolitical escalation = CHF safe-haven, exit EUR/CHF

④ 🟡 LONG USD/JPY FX Major Conditional — MIXED signal ISM ✅ IN-LINE + FOMC Minutes 8 Jul ★★★★★ SIAGA 139–141 143–145 138 HIGH ISM IN-LINE = sinyal MIXED, bukan USD relief. Entry hanya jika FOMC Minutes hawkish.

⑤ 🟡 WAIT XAUUSD Komoditas Conditional LONG ISM ✅ IN-LINE = netral, FOMC Minutes 8 Jul ★★★★★ SIAGA Siaga $4,080–$4,120 $4,300–$4,500 $4,000 HIGH ISM IN-LINE = netral untuk gold. Entry lebih selektif — tunggu pullback atau FOMC dovish.

⑥ 🟡 WAIT BTC Kripto Conditional LONG ISM ✅ IN-LINE = netral, risk sentiment menanti FOMC ★★★★★ SIAGA Siaga $58,000–$60,000 $65,000–$68,000 $55,000 HIGH COT extreme long — contrarian bearish. ISM IN-LINE tidak mengubah risk sentiment signifikan.

⚠️ Crowded Trade Warning:
• SHORT AUD/NZD: Semua orang expecting RBNZ hike. Jika hold = massive reversal. Size kecil. Siap dua arah.
• SHORT GBP/JPY: COT GBP extreme short = risk short squeeze. Japan PPI BEAT bisa trigger lebih lanjut, tapi size tetap kecil.
• LONG EUR/CHF: Geopolitical risk unpredictable. Set SL ketat.

5D Week-by-Week Game Plan

SENIN 6 Jul 2026

Event ✅ ALL RILIS: Eurozone PPI Mei +0.2% IN-LINE ✅, Eurozone Retail Sales Mei +0.2% MILD MISS ✅, ★ ISM Services PMI Jun 54.0 IN-LINE ✅, Fed Waller speaks — tone moderat ✅
Watch: USD pairs, XAUUSD, BTC | Post-ISM: sinyal MIXED — stagflation masih base case
Action: RESOLUSI: ISM Services 54.0 IN-LINE + Employment 51.2 rebound = sinyal MIXED. Services cooling (headline 54.5→54.0) + NFP 57K MISS = ekonomi AS melambat, bukan crash. Stagflation masih base case, tapi momentum melemah. Blackout ISM LIFTED, tapi MIXED signal — CAUTION. Entry USD pairs dengan size sangat kecil. FOMC Minutes 8 Jul = konfirmasi berikutnya. Waller speech tone moderat — tidak mengubah narrative.

SELASA 7 Jul 2026

Event: Japan Labor Cash Earnings Mei, Germany Industrial Production Mei, US Trade Balance Mei, BOE Financial Stability Report, NATO Summit begins (Ankara)
Watch: JPY pairs, EUR pairs, GBP pairs
Konsensus: Labor Cash Earnings 2.5% YoY. German IP 0.3%. Trade Balance -$68B.
Action: Entry SHORT GBP/JPY jika Labor Cash Earnings BEAT dan BOE FSR dovish. NATO Summit = geopolitical risk monitoring.

RABU — HARI PALING VOLATILE 8 Jul 2026

Event: ★ RBNZ Decision (expected +25bps ke 2.50%), ★ FOMC Minutes (2:00 PM ET), Poland Rate Decision, EIA Crude Oil
Watch: NZD pairs, USD pairs, XAUUSD, BTC, CAD (oil)
Action: Kurangi size sebelum market open. BINARY EVENT: RBNZ hike = SHORT AUD/NZD. RBNZ hold = LONG AUD/NZD. FOMC Minutes = konfirmasi narrative USD. BLACKOUT semua NZD positions sebelum rilis.

KAMIS 9 Jul 2026

Event: ★ China CPI Jun (9:30 PM ET, f/c 1.1% YoY), ★ China PPI Jun (f/c -4.1% YoY), ★ ECB Minutes (7:30 AM ET), US Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, NY Fed Williams + Dallas Fed Logan speak, PepsiCo Q2 earnings
Watch: EUR pairs, AUD/CNH, USD pairs
Konsensus: China CPI 1.1%, PPI -4.1%. ECB minutes = detail diskusi hike Jun.
Action: Entry LONG EUR/GBP jika ECB Minutes hawkish. Entry SHORT AUD jika China CPI/PPI MISS. Williams/Logan dual speech = Fed communication.

JUMAT 10 Jul 2026

Event: ★ Japan PPI Jun (7:50 PM ET), Germany CPI Final Jun, France CPI Final Jun, ★ Canada Jobs Report Jun, India CPI Jun, IEA Oil Market Report
Watch: JPY pairs, CAD pairs, EUR pairs | Post-RBNZ + Post-FOMC consolidation
Konsensus: Japan PPI 2.8% YoY. Canada Jobs +18K.
Action: Entry SHORT GBP/JPY jika Japan PPI BEAT. Canada Jobs = minor trigger untuk CAD. IEA Oil Report = proxy untuk energy outlook.

LANGKAH 06
Entry Trigger Assessment

6A Entry Trigger Assessment Per Aset

🇺🇸 USD

Status PuzzleMENDEKATI LENGKAP — ISM IN-LINE = RESOLUSI

Keping TerpasangNFP 57K MISS BESAR (T1) + ISM Services 54.0 IN-LINE (T1 BARU) + ISM Mfg BEAT (T2) + Waller moderat (T2). Counter: GDP, Retail Sales sebelumnya BEAT.

Keping PendingISM Services ✅ RILIS + FOMC Minutes 8 Jul (T1) + Waller ✅ RILIS

Price-InLOW-MED — ISM IN-LINE memberikan kejelasan arah

RekomendasiCAUTION — MIXED signal. Tunggu FOMC Minutes 8 Jul.

BlackoutISM Services ✅ LIFTED | FOMC Minutes 8 Jul TETAP

🇪🇺 EUR

Status PuzzleSEBAGIAN — hold bias

Keping TerpasangECB hike Jun (T1), Flash CPI turun (T1), PPI (pending)

Keping PendingECB Minutes 9 Jul + PPI/Retail Sales 6 Jul

Price-InMED

RekomendasiENTRY via EUR/GBP dan EUR/CHF — SIAGA vs USD

BlackoutECB Minutes 9 Jul

🇬🇧 GBP

Status PuzzleSEBAGIAN — deflation + COT extreme short

Keping TerpasangBoE hold (T1), CPI deflation (T1), COT short extreme (T1)

Keping PendingBOE FSR 7 Jul (T2), tidak ada data hard UK minggu ini

Price-InHIGH — deflation sudah priced

RekomendasiENTRY EUR/GBP LONG + SHORT GBP/JPY

BlackoutBOE FSR 7 Jul

🇯🇵 JPY

Status PuzzleLENGKAP — July hike 92%

Keping TerpasangTokyo CPI BEAT (T1), BoJ hiking cycle (T1), COT extreme short (T1)

Keping PendingLabor Cash Earnings 7 Jul (T2), Japan PPI 10 Jul (T2)

Price-InMED — masih ada ekor squeeze

RekomendasiENTRY SHORT GBP/JPY — PRIORITAS ⭐⭐⭐⭐

BlackoutJapan PPI 10 Jul

🇦🇺 AUD

Status PuzzleBELUM CUKUP

Keping TerpasangRBA hold (T1 — mixed), China Caixin PMI MISS (T1)

Keping PendingChina CPI + PPI 9 Jul (T1 untuk AUD)

Price-InHIGH

RekomendasiWAIT — entry SHORT AUD/NZD jika RBNZ hike

🇳🇿 NZD ★ RBNZ WEEK

Status PuzzleBINARY — tergantung RBNZ 8 Jul

Keping TerpasangRBNZ KONSISTEN (3x), COT extreme short (5th)

Keping Pending★ RBNZ Decision 8 Jul (T1 BINARY)

Rekomendasi 1Jika HIKE: SHORT AUD/NZD ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rekomendasi 2Jika HOLD: LONG AUD/NZD, SHORT NZD/USD

Blackout★ 8 Jul — TIDAK ada posisi sebelum rilis

🥇 XAUUSD

Status PuzzleSEBAGIAN — bullish bias post-NFP

Keping TerpasangNFP 57K = USD weak (bullish). Geopolitical (bullish). Real yield masih tinggi (bearish offset).

Keping PendingISM Services 6 Jul + FOMC Minutes 8 Jul + Geopolitical

Price-InMED — $4,173 masih jauh dari ATH $5,595

RekomendasiCONDITIONAL LONG — Entry $4,080-$4,120

BlackoutISM Services 6 Jul + FOMC Minutes 8 Jul

₿ BTC

Status PuzzleBELUM CUKUP — Contrarian bearish signal

Keping TerpasangNFP 57K = USD weak = BTC relief +2.4%. TAPI COT extreme long (100th) = contrarian bearish. Fear & Greed ~30 = masih fear.

Keping PendingISM Services 6 Jul (risk sentiment proxy) + FOMC Minutes 8 Jul

Price-InHIGH — BTC sudah turun 18% bulan Jun

RekomendasiWAIT — COT extreme long = warning. $58K support kritis.

6B Weekly Puzzle Completion Tracker

Aset Keping Utama (3A) Status Surprise Keping Pending (3B) Price-In Puzzle Status Entry Readiness

USD NFP 57K MISS, ISM Services 54.0 IN-LINE, ISM Mfg BEAT, Waller moderat ⚠️ MIXED — services cooling ISM Services ✅, FOMC Minutes (T1) MED PARTIAL — mixed, butuh FOMC CAUTION — Tunggu FOMC Minutes

EUR ECB hike Jun, Flash CPI turun, PPI IN-LINE +0.2%, Retail Sales MILD MISS ✅ KONSISTEN (2x) PPI ✅, Retail Sales ✅, ECB Minutes (T2) MED SEBAGIAN ENTRY via EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF

GBP BoE hold, CPI deflation, COT extreme short ⚠️ Mixed BOE FSR (T2), tidak ada data hard HIGH SEBAGIAN ENTRY EUR/GBP + SHORT GBP/JPY

JPY Tokyo CPI BEAT, BoJ hiking, COT extreme short ✅ KONSISTEN 4x Labor Cash Earnings (T2), Japan PPI (T2) MED LENGKAP ENTRY — SHORT GBP/JPY ⭐⭐⭐⭐

NZD RBNZ KONSISTEN 3x, COT extreme short BINARY EVENT — RBNZ 8 Jul ★ RBNZ Decision (T1 BINARY) HIGH BINARY SIAGA — SHORT AUD/NZD jika HIKE

AUD RBA hold mixed, China Caixin PMI MISS 🔻 China deflation China CPI + PPI 9 Jul (T1 proxy) HIGH BELUM CUKUP WAIT — short leg via AUD/NZD

CHF SNB hold 1.25%, safe-haven demand ✅ KONSISTEN Geopolitical risk (NATO Summit) MED LENGKAP ENTRY sebagai short leg EUR/CHF

XAUUSD NFP miss (bullish) + ISM IN-LINE (bearish offset) + Geopolitical ⚠️ Mixed — ISM IN-LINE = neutral ISM Services ✅, FOMC Minutes MED SEBAGIAN — mixed signal CONDITIONAL LONG — siaga $4,080, lebih selektif

BTC NFP relief +2.4%, COT extreme long ⚠️ Contrarian bearish ISM Services (proxy risk) HIGH BELUM CUKUP WAIT — COT warning

6C Skenario "Apa yang Akan Mengubah Gambar?"

TEMA 1 — USD REGIME SHIFT

Kondisi Pembalikan Narrative — RESOLUSI 6 JUL

Priced-In Saat IniNFP miss = koreksi, bukan pivot. ISM Services 54.0 IN-LINE mengonfirmasi ini. DXY recovery ke ~101.00.

Event KONFIRMASI ✅ISM Services IN-LINE 54.0 (TERJADI) + Employment 51.2 rebound = MIXED — services cooling, hiring naik. NFP 57K = KOREKSI (Prinsip 7), tapi ISM tidak memberikan konfirmasi balik yang kuat.

Event PEMBALIKAN (gagal)ISM Services MISS (<50) — TIDAK TERJADI. Deflation narrative PREMATURE.

Probabilitas PembalikanRENDAH (15-20%) — ISM Services IN-LINE + Employment rebound = stagflation solid. Butuh NFP Jul miss lagi untuk regime shift.

TEMA 2 — RBNZ DIVERGENCE

Kondisi Pembalikan Narrative

Priced-In Saat IniRBNZ hike 25bps ke 2.50% (80% prob). NZD short extreme.

Event KONFIRMASIRBNZ hike + hawkish guidance = NZD squeeze, AUD/NZD 1.1200.

Event PEMBALIKANRBNZ HOLD = massive dovish surprise. NZD crash, AUD/NZD 1.1600+.

Probabilitas PembalikanRENDAH (20%) — RBNZ KONSISTEN 3x, track record solid. Tapi global dovish tilt bisa pengaruhi.

TEMA 3 — CHINA DEFLATION

Kondisi Pembalikan Narrative

Priced-In Saat IniChina deflation — Caixin PMI 49.8 kontraksi. CPI 1.1%, PPI -4.1% f/c.

Event KONFIRMASICPI MISS (<1.0%) + PPI deeper deflation (<-4.5%) = PBoC cut LPR, AUD headwind.

Event PEMBALIKANCPI BEAT (>1.5%) + PPI membaik (>-3.5%) = deflation narrative selesai, AUD relief.

Probabilitas PembalikanRENDAH (15-20%) — Deflation China sudah berlangsung berbulan-bulan. 1 data positif tidak mengubah struktural.

⚠ Disclaimer — Wajib Dibaca

Laporan ini disusun semata-mata untuk tujuan edukasi dan diskusi analitik di komunitas trading Nova Capital. Laporan ini BUKAN merupakan rekomendasi investasi, rekomendasi beli/jual instrumen keuangan apapun, atau saran keuangan dalam bentuk apapun. Trading valuta asing, komoditas, dan instrumen derivatif mengandung risiko kerugian yang signifikan dan tidak cocok untuk semua kalangan investor. Past performance bukan jaminan hasil di masa depan. Seluruh skenario, proyeksi, dan analisis bersifat probabilistik dan dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu. Setiap keputusan trading adalah tanggung jawab penuh masing-masing individu. Data mungkin memiliki delay dan tidak selalu real-time. Analisis BTC bersifat makro dan tidak merupakan rekomendasi pembelian/penjualan aset kripto. Aset kripto memiliki volatilitas ekstrem dan risiko kehilangan modal secara penuh.

Data sumber: CME FedWatch, ECB Watch, TradingEconomics, StreetStats, Investing.com, CoinDesk, LiteFinance, Janus Henderson, Bloomberg (kutipan via sumber publik), Focus Economics, Bank Indonesia official releases, BOJ official releases, ECB official releases, Fed official releases. Probabilitas rate didasarkan pada harga futures market per 3 Jul 2026 — dapat berubah dengan cepat.

Laporan ini disusun oleh: Bima Galih — Nova Capital FX Macro Research Desk
Tanggal penyusunan: 5 Juli 2026 | Periode review: 29 Jun – 3 Jul 2026 | Periode outlook: 6–10 Jul 2026

Driver	Kondisi	Price-In?	Sinyal Gold	Bobot	Event 3B
DXY Trend	~101.00 — recovery post-ISM IN-LINE	Sebagian	➡️ Mixed 30%	30%	ISM Services ✅ RILIS 54.0 IN-LINE, FOMC Minutes
Real Yield AS	~2.15-2.20% — masih tinggi	Sebagian	⬇️ Bearish 25%	25%	FOMC Minutes, Waller
Geopolitical Risk	Middle East aktif, Israel Gaza, NATO Summit	Partially	⬆️ Bullish 25%	25%	NATO Summit Ankara, Israel
CB Buying Struktural	EM CB >1,000 ton/tahun	Provide floor	⬆️ Bullish offset 15%	15%	Structural — tidak ada 3B
COT Positioning	Declining from extreme — sehat	Sudah turun	⬆️ Netral-Bullish 5%	5%	Tidak langsung

Faktor	Kondisi	Price-In?	Sinyal	Event 3B
DXY	100.76 — post-NFP weakness	Sebagian	⬆️ Bullish BTC	ISM Services, FOMC Minutes
Risk Appetite	Fear ~30, recovering from 24	Sebagian	➡️ Improving	ISM Services
COT Positioning	Extreme long — CONTRARIAN BEARISH	Not priced	⬇️ Bearish	—
Regulatory	Binance MiCA license lost	Mostly priced	⬇️ Bearish	—

Pair	CB Divergensi	Carry (Rate Diff)	Growth Divergensi	Momentum	Overall Bias	Conviction	Price-In	Event 3B Kritis
AUD/NZD	RBA Hold vs RBNZ Hike Expected	AUD 4.35% vs NZD 2.25% (AUD carry adv.)	AUD stagflasi vs NZD reflasi	BEARISH AUD/NZD	SHORT AUD/NZD	★★★★	HIGH	RBNZ Decision 8 Jul
EUR/GBP	ECB Hold vs BoE Hold (EUR relatively hawkish)	ECB 2.25% vs BoE 5.25% (GBP yield adv.)	EUR reflation vs GBP deflation	BULLISH EUR/GBP	LONG EUR/GBP	★★★★	MED	ECB Minutes 9 Jul
EUR/CHF	ECB Hold vs SNB Hold (rate diff persists)	ECB 2.25% vs SNB 1.25% (EUR adv.)	EUR reflasi vs CHF deflasi	BULLISH EUR/CHF	LONG EUR/CHF	★★★	MED	ECB Minutes 9 Jul
GBP/JPY	BoE Hold vs BoJ Hike Bias	BoE 5.25% vs BoJ 0.50% (GBP carry adv.)	GBP deflasi vs JPY reflasi	BEARISH GBP/JPY	SHORT GBP/JPY	★★★★★	MED	Japan PPI 10 Jul
EUR/USD	ECB Hold vs Fed Hold — ISM IN-LINE = no edge	ECB 2.25% vs Fed 5.50% (USD adv.)	Divergensi minimal	NEUTRAL — MIXED signal	Range-Bound	★★★★★	HIGH	ISM Services ✅ 54.0 IN-LINE, FOMC Minutes 8 Jul
USD/JPY	Fed Hold vs BoJ Hike Bias	Fed 5.50% vs BoJ 0.50% (USD adv.)	USD stagflasi vs JPY reflasi	NEUTRAL (JPY bias)	SHORT jangka menengah	★★★★★	HIGH	ISM Services + Japan PPI 10 Jul

🥇 1	SHORT AUD/NZD	FX Cross	Bearish AUD	RBNZ Decision 8 Jul	★★★★	1.1350–1.1450	1.1100–1.1200	1.1550	MED	RBNZ HOLD = posisi invalid — reversal ke LONG
🥈 2	SHORT GBP/JPY	FX Cross	Bearish	Japan PPI 10 Jul + BoJ Jul 29	★★★★	193–195	185–188	198	MED	COT GBP extreme short — squeeze risk, size kecil
🥉 3	LONG EUR/GBP	FX Cross	Bullish	ECB Minutes 9 Jul	★★★★	0.865–0.875	0.890–0.900	0.855	MED	GBP short squeeze bisa koreksi entry
⑤	LONG EUR/CHF	FX Cross	Bullish	ECB Minutes 9 Jul	★★★★★	0.935–0.940	0.955–0.965	0.925	MED	Geopolitical escalation = CHF safe-haven, exit EUR/CHF
④ 🟡	LONG USD/JPY	FX Major	Conditional — MIXED signal	ISM ✅ IN-LINE + FOMC Minutes 8 Jul	★★★★★ SIAGA	139–141	143–145	138	HIGH	ISM IN-LINE = sinyal MIXED, bukan USD relief. Entry hanya jika FOMC Minutes hawkish.
⑤ 🟡	WAIT XAUUSD	Komoditas	Conditional LONG	ISM ✅ IN-LINE = netral, FOMC Minutes 8 Jul	★★★★★ SIAGA	Siaga $4,080–$4,120	$4,300–$4,500	$4,000	HIGH	ISM IN-LINE = netral untuk gold. Entry lebih selektif — tunggu pullback atau FOMC dovish.
⑥ 🟡	WAIT BTC	Kripto	Conditional LONG	ISM ✅ IN-LINE = netral, risk sentiment menanti FOMC	★★★★★ SIAGA	Siaga $58,000–$60,000	$65,000–$68,000	$55,000	HIGH	COT extreme long — contrarian bearish. ISM IN-LINE tidak mengubah risk sentiment signifikan.

Aset	Keping Utama (3A)	Status Surprise	Keping Pending (3B)	Price-In	Puzzle Status	Entry Readiness
USD	NFP 57K MISS, ISM Services 54.0 IN-LINE, ISM Mfg BEAT, Waller moderat	⚠️ MIXED — services cooling	ISM Services ✅, FOMC Minutes (T1)	MED	PARTIAL — mixed, butuh FOMC	CAUTION — Tunggu FOMC Minutes
EUR	ECB hike Jun, Flash CPI turun, PPI IN-LINE +0.2%, Retail Sales MILD MISS	✅ KONSISTEN (2x)	PPI ✅, Retail Sales ✅, ECB Minutes (T2)	MED	SEBAGIAN	ENTRY via EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF
GBP	BoE hold, CPI deflation, COT extreme short	⚠️ Mixed	BOE FSR (T2), tidak ada data hard	HIGH	SEBAGIAN	ENTRY EUR/GBP + SHORT GBP/JPY
JPY	Tokyo CPI BEAT, BoJ hiking, COT extreme short	✅ KONSISTEN 4x	Labor Cash Earnings (T2), Japan PPI (T2)	MED	LENGKAP	ENTRY — SHORT GBP/JPY ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NZD	RBNZ KONSISTEN 3x, COT extreme short	BINARY EVENT — RBNZ 8 Jul	★ RBNZ Decision (T1 BINARY)	HIGH	BINARY	SIAGA — SHORT AUD/NZD jika HIKE
AUD	RBA hold mixed, China Caixin PMI MISS	🔻 China deflation	China CPI + PPI 9 Jul (T1 proxy)	HIGH	BELUM CUKUP	WAIT — short leg via AUD/NZD
CHF	SNB hold 1.25%, safe-haven demand	✅ KONSISTEN	Geopolitical risk (NATO Summit)	MED	LENGKAP	ENTRY sebagai short leg EUR/CHF
XAUUSD	NFP miss (bullish) + ISM IN-LINE (bearish offset) + Geopolitical	⚠️ Mixed — ISM IN-LINE = neutral	ISM Services ✅, FOMC Minutes	MED	SEBAGIAN — mixed signal	CONDITIONAL LONG — siaga $4,080, lebih selektif
BTC	NFP relief +2.4%, COT extreme long	⚠️ Contrarian bearish	ISM Services (proxy risk)	HIGH	BELUM CUKUP	WAIT — COT warning